2010 Fantasy Football Positional Preview: Quarterbacks

The latest trends in the NFL favor teams that are successful passing the ball. Look no further than Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans Saints versus the Indianapolis Colts. The two teams combined for nearly 10,000 passing yards and 68 passing touchdowns during the regular season. Name the two best quarterbacks in the NFL? Most people would probably say Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.

In 2008, five teams passed for more than 4,000 yards. In 2009, that number exploded to 12. It may not last, but of those 12 passing teams, nine of them were playoff teams. So all we can really extract from this is that passing the ball appears to translate to more success.

In fantasy football, quarterbacks run deep. If you’re playing in a 10-team league, you can end up with a Brett Favre or Jay Cutler as late as round 9 or 10. It all depends on what you want: the safe bet (Brees, Manning, Aaron Rodgers) or the late upside (Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb).

(Note: Catch up on previous Fantasy Football positions here: Running Backs, Wide Receivers )

Rankings

Tier 1

1. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints (Bye: 10)
2. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers (Bye: 10)
3. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts (Bye: 7)

Whether you select Brees or Rodgers, there is no wrong answer as to who is best on paper. Rodgers is coming into his own and Brees has strung together terrific years consecutively. Manning, despite his tremendous reputation, has fallen off a tiny bit. His status will get him drafted this high, but it’s possible he continues to slip to Tier 2 this year.

Tier 2

4. Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys (Bye: 4)
5. Tom Brady – New England Patriots (Bye: 5)
6. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans (Bye: 7)
7. Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers (Bye: 10)

Romo had a big year in 2009 and despite all the Cowboys haters out there; the Cowboys have a ton of playmakers on offense which gives him the advantage in this tier. Brady had a solid year after returning from injury and I feel he’ll improve. But if you think Brady will return to his 2007 form where he threw for 50 TDs, you’re mistaken. Schaub and the Houston Texans pass the ball a lot, I mean a lot. There is some slight concern as Schaub has had a history of injury but you’ve got to go with him because he still has upside to replace Manning in Tier 1. Rivers gets a slight downgrade for me with the loss of WR Vincent Jackson for most of the season, plus he might be traded. Rivers is still one of the more underrated QBs in the league but I foresee the Chargers relying a little more on their run game.

Tier 3

8. Brett Favre – Minnesota Vikings (Bye: 4)
9. Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens (Bye: 8 )

Favre actually finished 2009 as a top 5 QB. Flacco is coming into his prime and the Ravens added dynamic playmaker WR Anquan Boldin. Favre is the safest choice. But Flacco is a sleeper pick who is dropping in drafts due to Favre coming back.

Tier 4

10. Kevin Kolb – Philadelphia Eagles (Bye: 8 )
11. Jay Cutler – Chicago Bears (Bye: 8 )
12. Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons (Bye: 8 )
13. Eli Manning – New York Giants (Bye: 8 )
14. Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals (Bye: 6)

This tier is where things get complicated. Kolb is finally getting his shot in Philly, and you have to think there is a reason the Eagles want him to play now. Chicago has added Mike Martz as offensive coordinator so Cutler will be passing the ball in true gunslinger mode. “Lil” Manning has a trio of good receivers in Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham and a very inconsistent run game. Those two things together equal a more pass-reliant team. Lastly, the Bengals added Terrell Owens alongside Chad Ochocinco and no matter what you think of these guys, both were No. 1 WRs last season and one of them is going to be covered by No. 2 cornerbacks all season long. That’s called a mismatch. There is an argument for all these guys to have improved years but the Bengals, Giants and Falcons are all teams that like to establish a run game. Kolb has little experience and Cutler and the Bears looked awful last year. There is lots of risk but between these guys, but someone will blow up for a big year.

Tier 5

15. Donovan McNabb – Washington Redskins (Bye: 9)
16. Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins (Bye: 5)
17. Alex Smith – San Francisco 49ers (Bye: 9)

Here we have upside versus a career fading away. McNabb has a lot to prove this season, but he’s hasn’t put together a great fantasy season anytime recently. I’d pass on him. The Redskins receivers simply aren’t as good as the Eagles. Expectations for Henne and Smith are rising. Both are sleeper picks all across the web. Henne has Brandon Marshall to lean on and the 49ers are a consensus pick to win the NFC West.

Tier 6

18. Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers (Bye: 5)
19. Mark Sanchez – New York Jets (Bye: 7)
20. Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions (Bye: 7)
21. Matt Leinart – Arizona Cardinals (Bye: 6)
22. Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs (Bye: 4)

Roethlisberger is the perfect backup QB this year if your starting QB doesn’t have his bye until after Week 6. Roethlisberger is suspended for six games and it might drop down to five. Sanchez has the least to prove of the remaining four. After all, he led his team to the AFC Championship game in his rookie year. He’s not a great fantasy QB, but he’s going to improve. As for Stafford, Leinart and Cassel, all three have big question marks. The Lions and Chiefs have struggling passing attacks with underachieving star receivers. Leinart has to fill the shoes of a Hall of Famer and it remains to be seen whether he can get it done. Your best bet is to point and pray if you’re picking amongst these guys for a backup. None of them are sure things but I like the way Sanchez and Stafford lead their teams.

Tier 7

23. David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars (Bye: 9)
24. Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks (Bye: 5)
25. Jason Campbell – Oakland Raiders (Bye: 10)
26. Vince Young – Tennessee Titans (Bye: 9)
27. Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos (Bye: 9)

Ideally, you don’t want these guys unless the matchup is perfect. Garrard and Hasselbeck can be solid but they are simply game-managers. They make the easy throws and minimize mistakes. That isn’t a winning fantasy formula. Campbell, Young and Orton are all big question marks. Campbell went from bad to worse in his move from Washington to Oakland. Young lacks ideal pass accuracy but can create enough with his feet to make you sometimes forget that he’s not a great passer. Add to the fact that the Titans are going to run Chris Johnson into the ground with upwards of over 300 carries and it’s difficult to imagine Young ever having a big passing year. Orton looked good to start 2009, but with the loss of Brandon Marshall, there’s little reason to be exciting about Denver’s passing game.

Tier 8

28. Matt Moore – Carolina Panthers (Bye: 6)
29. Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bye: 4)
30. Sam Bradford – St. Louis Rams (Bye: 9)
31. Jake Delhomme – Cleveland Browns (Bye: 8 )
32. Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills (Bye: 6)

Gluttons for punishment need only apply. These guys are awful. Moore did finish the 2009 season looking pretty good but most of his opponents had closed down shop with their place in the playoffs already set. Freeman is vital to the Bucs’ success but their offense is atrocious. He also recently suffered a thumb injury to his throwing hand, which is never good. Bradford should only be selected in keeper leagues but the Rams need so much work done on their offense that it may be a few years before he is fantasy viable. Delhomme and Edwards are only for those with a death wish, I have nothing positive to say about either. Avoid these final five guys as best you can.