2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Receivers, like running backs, are in a state of flux this season. As the best offenses in the NFL continue to spread the ball around, finding consistent options at WR isn’t easy. Beyond the top 15 to 20 receivers, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. There’s a healthy mix of safe veterans and high-upside players who’ve played three seasons or less.

When drafting receivers, there are two concerns. One, if it’s a PPR league, get them early. Two, if it isn’t a PPR league, seek out value. Inevitably guys are going to be undervalued and slip in the draft. For example, Anquan Boldin of the Baltimore Ravens is slipping in drafts.

As a bit of strategy for 2010, tight ends start to fly off the board in round 5. As teams shift their focus away from receivers, one is bound to fall in your lap. Don’t follow the crowd here. Instead, grab a receiver like the 49ers WR Michael Crabtree or Jags WR Mike Sims-Walker. Both these guys are solid WR2s and even better flex options. Focus on how far a guy has slid and where you are in the draft rather than worrying about filling your roster positions.

(Note: Catch up on previous Fantasy Football positions here: Quarterbacks, Running Backs)

Rankings

Tier 1 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson – Tennessee Titans (Bye: 7)
2. Randy Moss – New England Patriots (Bye: 5)

I was tempted to have Johnson alone in this tier but if I were that critical, I’d end up with 20 tiers. Johnson is the best receiver in the game hands down. As evidenced by his average draft position ranging from No. 5 to No. 10. Johnson is a lock to finish amongst the top five receivers in fantasy football this season, barring injury. Moss belongs here because of his touchdown production. Since coming to New England, he’s averaged 16 touchdowns per season. Nobody else in the league can touch that number. Johnson and Moss can both win games for you single-handedly, that’s why they’re Tier 1.

Tier 2 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

3. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts (Bye: 7)
4. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins (Bye: 5)
5. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals (Bye: 6)

Tier 2 and Tier 3 are highly debatable. There are about ten guys that are all tightly packed together. It’s all personal preference.

Wayne is still the clear No. 1 WR on one of the best offenses in the NFL. Marshall, I feel, could be the No. 1 WR this season. The Dolphins have no one to throw to and Marshall has the ability to take over games. Fitzgerald was the No. 2 ranked fantasy receiver heading into the offseason, but with the realization that Matt Leinart was his QB and now Derek Anderson will be his QB, he’s been steadily slipping down draft boards.

Tier 3 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

6. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys (Bye: 4)
7. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions (Bye: 7)
8. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons (Bye: 8 )
9. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers (Bye: 10)
10. DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles (Bye: 8 )

If the Cowboys can get him more possession catches, rather than relying on him to make big plays only, Austin could explode.

Calvin Johnson is the most risky selection here simply because there’s no telling what the Lions will be able to do for him. Chemistry may improve between he and Stafford but we still need to see it.

White continues to be under the radar despite being eerily consistent the last three seasons (averaging 86 receptions, 1225 yards, 8 TDs). He’s coming into his prime and seems to improve every season.

Jennings has emerged in Green Bay as a stud despite an underachieving 2009 season. He can only improve upon those numbers, especially with Aaron Rodgers slinging 30+ touchdowns every year.

The unknown factor for Jackson is how well or how poorly Kevin Kolb ends up. Jackson is a game-breaker, but he had more than six receptions in only two games last year. I prefer guys who score 12 points per game every game rather than a guy who scores two one week and 30 the next.

Tier 4 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

11. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints (Bye: 10)
12. Anquan Boldin – Baltimore Ravens (Bye: 8 )
13. Steve Smith – New York Giants (Bye: 8 )
14. Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals (Bye: 10)
15. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers (Bye: 6)

If the Saints weren’t so good across the board, Colston could be a top 3 WR. He only had 106 targets in 2009, good for 25th in the league. Thankfully, he catches almost everything and is a red zone target.

Projecting Boldin this high assumes one thing. He’s the man in Baltimore. This isn’t a foregone conclusion because Derrick Mason has been getting it done in the NFL for a very long time. But Boldin is the No. 1 guy and I feel he’ll get 200+ targets.

The new Steve Smith (New York’s version) is a possession guy. He’s not a home-run threat. He probably won’t score more than a half dozen touchdowns. But he’ll get a ton of receptions and yards, book it. Ochocinco enjoyed a bounce-back year. I think this is a very kind ranking, perhaps too kind. Cincinnati has developed into a run-first team with Cedric Benson and Ochocinco doesn’t go deep like he used to.

Carolina’s Smith will finish in the top 20 WRs, you just have to hope new quarterback Matt Moore can continually feed him the ball. The Panthers run it and run it some more, so it remains to be seen how many passes will be left for Smith.

Tier 5 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

16. Michael Crabtree – San Francisco 49ers (Bye: 6)
17. Wes Welker – New England Patriots (Bye: 8 )
18. Mike Sims-Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars (Bye: 5)
19. Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers (Bye: 6)

San Francisco’s offense began to flourish once Alex Smith was named quarterback. Tight end Vernon Davis benefitted most greatly, but Crabtree is certainly a potential sophomore sleeper. Welker tore ligaments in his knee and it was believed he would not play the opening weeks of the 2010 season. After an incredible recovery, Welker will play in Week 1. Being one of two players in the NFL to have 100+ receptions in the last season seasons (Brandon Marshall being the other), Welker is a great PPR option.

MSW has injury concerns and plays for a lackluster offense but has high potential. When healthy, he played great but as the season wore on, he slowed down.

Ward isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a safe one. He set some career highs last year and is the most reliable receiver on the roster. He won’t win you your fantasy league, but he’ll certainly won’t lose it for you either.

Tier 6 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

20. Percy Harvin – Minnesota Vikings (Bye: 9)
21. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants (Bye: 7)
22. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs (Bye: 4)
23. Malcolm Floyd – San Diego Chargers (Bye: 7)
24. Donald Driver – Miami Dolphins (Bye: 5)
25. Pierre Garcon – Indianapolis Colts (Bye: 5)

At this point in the draft for receivers, we separate the men from the boys. Identifying potential and skipping the hype is the name of the game.

With Sidney Rice out the first two months of the season, Harvin should see a lot more playing time. People still may not be believers, but Harvin is more dangerous in open space than any other player in the NFL. Don’t believe me? You haven’t seen enough of him then.

What Steve Smith provides as a possession receiver, Nicks brings the same to the table after the catch. I would describe him as an angry runner who can break tackles and find daylight. Expect a breakout year from him. Bowe is a bit of a knucklehead but he’s slimmed down and I’d compare him to Brandon Marshall in talent. Can he put it all together this season? We’ll find out but the talent is there.

I’m higher on Floyd than most anyone but that’s because I have faith in Philip Rivers and the offensive system in place under Norv Turner. Floyd fits the mold of Chargers receivers in that he’s tall, a great jumper and a red-zone target. Unless you think Rivers is going to fall off the map, he’s got to get his production somewhere and Antonio Gates isn’t about to score 20 TDs, is he? Therefore, Floyd will pick up the slack, no problem.

Driver and Garcon are two guys on two opposite ends of their career in similar positions on their teams. Both are No. 2 receivers. Both are a part of great offenses with a lot of playmakers on offense. But would you rather have the aging veteran or the young upstart? There are no wrong answers in the preseason. But I’d say take Garcon. Driver had a career year while Garcon’s role is still improving in Indy.

Tier 7 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

26. Mike Wallace – Pittsburgh Steelers (Bye: 5)
27. Santana Moss – Washington Redskins (Bye: 9)
28. Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles (Bye: 8 )
29. Terrell Owens – Cincinnati Bengals (Bye: 6)
30. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Seattle Seahawks (Bye: 5)
31. Robert Meachem – New Orleans Saints (Bye: 10)
32. Braylon Edwards – New York Jets (Bye: 7)
33. Bernard Berrian – Minnesota Vikings (Bye: 7)

The mix of young players and veterans gets thicker.

Wallace has a ton of potential, but you’re putting a lot of faith into the Steelers’ passing offense. Sure, it seems odd that Pittsburgh would so easily walk away from Santonio Holmes, maybe they really like Wallace? He’s the future of the team at his position once Ward walks away, he’ll have to prove it to me before I draft him.

Moss peaked many years ago but it could be a final hurrah with Donovan McNabb in town. Moss is still the only established receiver on the Skins so it seems logical that McNabb could make him his No. 1 target.

Maclin is a DeSean Jackson clone and I think this works against the Eagles in some ways as both guys are good at the same sorts of things. Maclin does run better routes so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on more underneath routes, which could get him more receptions than Jackson but fewer yards.

Owens and Housh both need a big year to validate themselves late in their career. Owens has the better opportunity since he’s WR2 in Cincinnati which gives him the luxury of lining up against team’s No. 2 corner instead of No. 1. Housh was never fast and seems to have lost a step so I’m not sure what to expect. The Seahawks can’t possibly have a great offense, could they?

Edwards is a risky pick. The Jets aren’t much of a passing team and Edwards isn’t much of a catching guy. Struggles with drops, focus and consistency have dogged his career and made him a bit of a joke. Let someone else take this risk.

Berrian could see the biggest jump of any receiver in the draft over the next week. With Rice out, as previously stated, Berrian is likely the new WR1 in Minnesota. He needs to step up big and he could potentially put up at top 15 performance.

Tier 8 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

34. Vincent Jackson – San Diego Chargers (Bye: 10)
35. Santonio Holmes – New York Jets (Bye: 7)
34. Sidney Rice – Minnesota Vikings (Bye: 7)
35. Johnny Knox – Chicago Bears (Bye: 8 )
36. Kenny Britt – Tennessee Titans (Bye: 9)
37. Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys (Bye: 4)
38. Steve Breaston – Arizona Cardinals (Bye: 4)
39. Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills (Bye: 7)

Jackson, Holmes, and Rice are all beasts but unfortunately, they’re all going to be out for at least a few games. Jackson is suspended for three games and could hold out longer. Holmes will miss four games and I expect him to still be the leading receiver on the Jets. Rice is out two months but he’s so good that he’ll be a huge pick-up once he is back.

Knox is the safest bet of all the receivers in Chicago. He’s quick, reliable and should be the guy in Mike Martz’s offense.

Britt is a burner and the only other big-play option in Tennessee. He showed flashes last year but needs to contribute more consistently. So for now, he’s a low WR3 or high WR4.

The Cowboys need Bryant to prove he can play this year but so far, it doesn’t sound too promising. I’d expect Bryant to get going in the second half of the season.

Breaston would a top-25 guy if Kurt Warner were still in town, but with Derek Anderson leading the way, I can’t trust him. As for Lee Evans, I feel bad for the guy. He’s so good but his team is just so bad.

Tier 9 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

40. Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens (Bye: 10)
41. Devin Aromashodu – Chicago Bears (Bye: 8 )
42. Chaz Schilens – Oakland Raiders (Bye: 7)
43. Chris Chambers – Kansas City Chiefs (Bye: 4)
44. Mohamed Massaquoi – Cleveland Browns (Bye: 8 )
45. Devery Henderson – New Orleans Saints (Bye: 10)
46. Julian Edelman – New England Patriots (Bye: 5)

Mason deserves better than this ranking but he’s a player where you know exactly what you’re going to get (70 receptions, 1000 yards, 5 touchdowns). His stats won’t wow you at all and his numbers could drop due to the presence of Boldin.

Aromashodu’s stock as a sleeper this season hasn’t caught fire. The thing is, somebody on the Bears is going to blow up and from what I’ve seen, he’s the most dynamic receiver they’ve got. Now, does the Bears coaching staff agree? Will they feed him the ball? It hasn’t played that way yet but he has the talent if given the opportunity.

Schilens, Chambers and Massaquoi all have the potential to outperform this ranking. It boils down to how successful will they be on offense. Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland are all underachieving the last few years and while these guys can succeed, it’s a big gamble.

Henderson is still competing for the WR2 role on the Saints, but Meachem is the favorite. Since the Saints are so successful on offense, they rarely need to go deep (Henderson’s specialty) and take big chances to ignite a spark on offense.

Edelman had more value when it appeared Welker could miss part of the season but for now, he’s a good possession guy and considering the age of Moss and Welker, he would be a great fill-in if either of those guys go down.

Tier 10 2010 Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

47. Jabar Gaffney – Denver Broncos (Bye: 9)
48. Jacoby Jones – Houston Texans (Bye: 7)
49. Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos (Bye: 9)
50. Mike Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bye: 5)

Gaffney has been the No. 1 WR for Denver this offseason, but he’s done nothing in the preseason to validate that position. He’s an average receiver on a team with no established talent.

Jones has a ton of upside, but he’s competing for WR2 spot alongside Andre Johnson. Considering how much the Texans love to pass the ball, he could be a great deep sleeper and someone to keep your eye on this season.

Royal was a huge let-down in 2009 and a perfect of example of what can happen to a young player or a player under a new coaching staff. He’s good, he’s great in the open field but the Broncos don’t appear interested in using him to the best of his abilities.

Williams has surpassed his rookie teammate Arrelious Benn as the Bucs top receiver. But with quarterback Josh Freeman having a broken thumb, it doesn’t really matter. Williams has excellent raw talent, but until his offense improves, it won’t matter what he can do if he can’t produce consistently.